A stream of consciousness on Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and Falcons.
1. If I’m Bill Belichick and the Patriots I want to…
…play this game in a phone booth. The Patriots are big and physical, especially on defense. They’re limiting opponents to 88.6 yards per game on the ground, third in the NFL this season. The Falcons have speed at receiver and running back, so if they get to the edge, their speed could take over the game. That’s why the Patriots will want to funnel everything inside. If their linebackers hold the edge and force the Falcons’ zone-running scheme back inside, the Patriots win. If their defensive tackles push the pocket by out-muscling guards Andy Levitre and Chris Chester while putting pressure in Matt Ryan’s face, the Patriots win. If they have success running the ball downhill consistently against Atlanta’s fast but undersized front seven, the Patriots win.
2. If I’m Dan Quinn and the Falcons I want to…
…turn the game into a track meet. Said Belichick when asked what’s the one thing that stood out to him about Atlanta: “The thing I notice most is just the team speed the Falcons have. They’re either as fast, or faster, than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league.” When asked by Colin Cowherd on Friday what he noticed most about the Falcons after facing them in the NFC Championship Game, the first words out of Packers running back Ty Montgomery was on Atlanta’s speed on defense. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme puts a lot of pressure on opposing linebackers and safeties because defenders have a difficult time deciphering whether the play will be a run or a pass. If Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman get to the edges of New England’s defense consistently, the Falcons win. If they run the ball efficiently and utilize play-action fakes to create big opportunities in the passing game, then the Falcons win. If they hold up defensively against the run and get the Patriots’ offense moving East-West, the Falcons win. If they can essentially turn Sunday into a seven-on-seven drill, I like the Falcons’ chances.
3. If the Falcons win on Sunday, think about what they will have…
…accomplished this season. With a victory in Super Bowl 51, they would have beaten Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Russell Wilson, Drew Brees (twice), Cam Newton (twice), Carson Palmer, Derek Carr and Jameis Winston this season. Granted, Newton and Palmer didn’t have great years, but both quarterbacks played in last season’s NFC title game. Brady, Rodgers, Wilson and Brees have seven Super Bowl victories combined. Given their early-career success, Carr and Winston could be playing for conference titles soon enough. They still have one massive hurdle to overcome this weekend, but if the Falcons beat the Patriots on Sunday then there would be no short-changing their success in 2016-17. They would have gone through one hell of a gauntlet to earn their championship.
4. Storylines were hard to come by this week…
…but one thing to appreciate about this Super Bowl matchup is that the focus has been on the game. Nobody was accused of using deer antler spray, or of having HGH shipped to their house, and so far no player has gone AWOL like Raiders’ center Barrett Robbins did in the lead up to Super Bowl XXXVII. One primary reason why the focus has been on the game is because these two organizations mirror each other. Falcons general manger Thomas Dimitroff is the former Director of College Scouting for the Patriots. One reason why he drafted Matt Ryan in 2008 is because the former Boston College quarterback reminded him of Tom Brady from a football I.Q. and work ethic standpoint. (Scott Pioli was also hand-picked by Belichick to be the Patriots’ Vice President of Player Personnel and now Atlanta’s assistant general manager.) The Patriots and Falcons’ rosters aren’t built the same. Quinn and Belichick look for completely different types of players to run their defensive systems. That said, there’s a lot of Patriot in the way the Falcons go about their business off-field. It’s not surprising that neither team supplied much, if any, bulletin board material for the opposition this week. There’s a mutual respect not only between the head coaches and the players, but even owners Robert Kraft and Arthur Blank. TMZ might be hurting for content this week, but true football fans have to appreciate that the game has been the focus.
5. If Matt Ryan leads the Falcons to victory on Sunday…
…then I think he’ll be viewed more like Drew Brees was after 2009 than Joe Flacco was in 2012. When it comes to judging Ryan’s legacy, the media has always gotten hung up on his playoff record. If Ryan wins on Sunday, however, then all of a sudden his accomplishments come into focus, much like they did for Brees when he led the Saints to a Super Bowl victory in 2009. Ryan and Flacco both came into the NFL in 2008. Ryan has thrown for more yards, has a higher completion percentage, a higher quarterback rating, a higher yards-per attempt average, more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Flacco, but Flacco has the ring. (Flacco has also benefited from having great Baltimore defenses, whereas Ryan has never had even an above-average defense in Atlanta.) At one point, the media had the discussion on whether or not Flacco was elite. No one dare offers Ryan up for the “elite” debate without a Super Bowl victory on his resume. That’s fair, but if the Falcons beat the Patriots, Ryan could, and should, be viewed as one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. If they don’t, then Ryan will be stuck in that “next tier” category for the foreseeable future.
6. It’s not wise to bet against Brady or Belichick…
…but I’m going to do it anyway. I like the Falcons to pull off the upset, 27-24. While the Patriots are favored, I’m not convinced that the Falcons aren’t the better overall team. Those that have picked New England have noted that Brady will carve up Atlanta’s defense. Fair enough, although people seem to be underestimating the Falcons’ defensive speed. Also, plenty of people are taking the Patriots because of experience. Again, that’s fair, although those same people overlook that Quinn has coached in three of the last four Super Bowls, including once against these very same Patriots. The Falcons are battle-tested and I think it’s Matt Ryan’s year.
Miklasz: Beware of Bill Belichick, But the Falcons Have Weapons to Beat the Patriots