Yesterday’s Results: I split with my two picks on Saturday. The Red Sox-Orioles over 9.5 never had a chance after the game was scoreless following four innings, while the Indians-White Sox under 8.5 was never in doubt despite Cleveland loading the bases with only one out in the eighth. That brings my record to 8-3 on the year.
On to Sunday’s plays…
(967) Boston Red Sox at (968) Baltimore Orioles, 12:05 p.m. CT
This matchup burned me yesterday as David Price dealt for Boston. The Red Sox offense finally woke up in the fifth inning, but it was too little, too late to save the over. Nevertheless, I’m going back to the well on Sunday.
We could see a repeat of yesterday’s matchup with Chris Sale pitching for Boston but Adrian Johnson is one of the best ‘over’ umpires in baseball. In Johnson’s 20 games behind home plate this year, the over is 16-4. That’s an incredible 80% clip, which is a trend too good to pass up.
The average ERA for all pitchers when Johnson is behind home plate is 5.20 and even though Sale is throwing for the Red Sox, they’re unlikely to push him considering he’s coming off the disabled list due to shoulder inflammation. In fact, beat writer Pete Abraham tweeted Saturday that Sale will be held to 85 pitches or so.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have the lowest strikeout percentage and the highest team ISO against right-handers this season. That spells disaster for Baltimore starter Alex Cobb, who has struggled virtually all season.
Prediction: Red Sox/Orioles over 8.5
(961) Pittsburgh Pirates at (962) San Francisco Giants, 3:05 p.m. CT
Dereck Rodriguez has been a lifesaver for a San Francisco club that has dealt with major injuries in its starting rotation for a second straight year. He has shown excellent control and limits home runs while pitching in spacious AT&T Park.
That said, the money and the betting tickets are off for this matchup. While the Giants are currently receiving 66% of the betting tickets, 70% of the money is on the Pirates. It’s early and the data is subject to change ahead of today’s 3:05 p.m. CT first pitch, but that’s a stark contrast between betting tickets and money wagered. It signals that sharp bettors are backing the Pirates, at least early.
Joe Musgrove generates a lot of ground balls, he limits hard contact, and faces a Giants team with its season on life support. San Francisco is just 2-9 in its last 11 home games while Pittsburgh is 13-5 in its last 18 games coming off a win. The Pirates make for a nice underdog play.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates +100
MLB: 8-3 (+$470.00)
*Based on projected $100.00 wagers