Well, last night was fun.
I won a game that I shouldn’t have (the Nationals scored three runs in the first inning off Aaron Nola but the score still fell under 7.5 for the game), I lost a game I shouldn’t have (the Diamondbacks led 3-0 and 4-2 before losing on a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth by the Rockies’ DJ LaMahieu), and also saw the Royals and White Sox play extra innings and still not come close to cashing the over.
It all amounted to a losing night, my second in as many days. While my overall record is solid (48-26-1), I’m just 1-4-1 over my last six MLB plays. After a great run dating back to early August, if you choose to fade me for a while, I certainly understand. I’ve done this long enough to know that streaks, both winning and losing, come and go throughout the season.
Having said that here’s to getting off the schnide tonight. On a small slate, I only like two MLB plays…
959 Toronto Blue Jays at 960 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
I love this play tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez has put together a solid season for the Red Sox. He’s striking out batters at 26.1% clip, he’s not walking anyone (7.5%), and batters can’t barrel him up (26.8% hard contact rate). Granted, Fenway is a hitter-friendly park and Boston will do some damage against Toronto’s Sam Gaviglio. That said, this is the same Red Sox team that couldn’t do anything against the ultra-hittable Aaron Sanchez last night so I’m willing to take my chances. The under is 8-1 in Rodriguez’s last nine starts versus the Blue Jays and 5-1 in his last six home outings versus Toronto.
Prediction: Under 9
961 Minnesota Twins at 962 Kansas City Royals, 7:15 p.m. CT
The over torched me in the Kansas City game last night but that’s not going to scare me off tonight’s pitching matchup between the Twins and Royals. Stephen Gonsalves and Heath Fillmyer are too of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. Gonsalves doesn’t strike anyone out (8.3%), walks a slew of batters (18.1%), and when the ball gets put into play against him, it’s coming off the bat hot (48.1% hard contact rate). It’s a similar story with Fillmyer: 14.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, and a 40.7% hard contact rate. Bettors will look at this matchup between two crappy teams playing in a pitcher-friendly park and move on. But there’s plenty of value in this total.
Prediction: Over 9.5
MLB: 48-26-1 (65%)
College Football: 7-5 (58%)